Western Conference: Round 1

Now we’ve arrived at our look into round one of the Western Conference playoffs.  This is a conference that is truly up for grabs. Teams we expected to dominate haven’t and some that we didn’t have.  Its going to be a wild one, so place your bets now because some of these odds are great.  Let’s get right to it and look to see who should come out on top and advance to round two, and why.

Central Division:

2) Winnipeg Jets vs 3) St. Louis Blues:

This is the type of series we’ve all been waiting for and the best part is that it wont take place with games starting at 10:30 EST!  This central division matchup pits a preseason Stanley Cup favorite against one of the hottest teams in the history of the game against each other in what is sure to be one of the most exciting series in recent history.  And yes, there will be blood!

The favorite coming into the season of these two teams was the Winnipeg Jets and for most of the season they showed why.  With a high-flying offense, a mean and nasty defense, and one of the best young goalies in the game, they’ve been on track to make a deep playoff run all season long.  They’re 6^th in goals scored this season and 15^th in goals against. They have the 4^th ranked PP but the PK is only 23^rd in the league, that’s unexpectedly bad.  And since the trade deadline they have only amassed a 10-9-1 record.  What’s a bit more concerning is that goal scoring winger Patrik Laine isn’t scoring.  Since the deadline he has 2 goals in 20 games.  He must be better in this series to help propel the Jets over the Blues; they cannot do it without him.

On the other hand, the Blues are so hot no one can touch them!  As of January 2^nd, they were the last place team in the league with 34pts.  They finished the year with 99 meaning they went on from a 15-18-4 record the 1^st half to a 30-10-5 record in the new year. The only team better since then, the Tampa Bay Lightning with 31 wins.  In that time frame the PP has been steady at their season average of roughly 21% and the PK is boosted above their season average to 84.7%.  And while their offense isn’t the best in the league (they’ve scored the 15^th most goals in the league), they’ve allowed the 4^th least goals in the league.  And they’re tied for 3^rd in shots against.

And while Winnipeg has won 3-of-4 games this season head to head, all those games took place before the New Year, New Blues, showed up to play hockey.  Because of that, I give you my 1^st upset special of the Playoffs.  St. Louis Blues win this series in 6 games!  (Also, I think I told you the Blues would be a better team this year didn’t I…)

Central Division:

1) Nashville Predators vs WC1) Dallas Stars:

This is another “styles make fights” type of series.  The main questions are can the Dallas Stars high powered offensive stars take over against the tight, controlled, methodical team game that comes in waves by the Nashville Predators? 

Now when I say Dallas has some high-powered offensive stars, I mean that.  They have Benn, Seguin, and Radulov…that’s about where it ends for them.  The team is far from a goal scoring power house.  Dallas scored the 3^rd least goals in the entire league this season though they’re tied for the 10^th best PP in the league.  Looking at them from the other side of things, their team defense has been rather stellar and very underrated.  They allowed the 2^nd least goals all year at an even 200.  And the PK is rather impressive as well coming in at 3^rd in the league!  And as they say, your goalie is your best penalty killer and big Ben Bishop has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Bishop leads all goalies this season with a .934 SV% and is 2^nd with a 1.98 GAA.

Nashville is similar yet thought of differently.  When you think Nashville, you think of a team with a great defense and goaltending, but that can fire the puck into the net with the best of them when it counts. But that isn’t really the case either.  When it comes to keeping the puck out of their net, they’re one of the best.  They’re 4^th in the league in goals against and their PK is 4^th in the league (right behind the Stars).  When it comes to scoring goals though they’re quite a bit better at it than Dallas.  The Preds rank 19^th in the league, which isn’t great but its better than Dallas’s 28^th.  The PP though is absolutely 100% trash.  The Nashville PP comes in at 12.9%...dead last in the league.

And that is what will cause this series to turn on its head.  Both teams are relatively even in just about every way other than the powerplay. And even since the trade deadline where Nashville went out and traded for Simmonds, a man known for being a powerplay specialist, they’ve still only converted on 16% of those chances since then.  Meanwhile Dallas has been clicking away at 24.5% in that time.  Due to that I have no choice but to give the nod here to the Dallas Stars… Lets go Stars in 7.

Pacific Division:

2) San Jose Sharks vs 3) Vegas Golden Knights:

This has been the longest known 1^st round match up coming out of the Western Conference and what a dandy it should be.  San Jose has been a power house team in the West for nearly a decade and finally made it to the Cup Finals a few years ago.  This year they feel that they have a better team and have a better chance at winning the cup than before.  They’re 3^rd in the league in GF/G and have the 6^th ranked PP.  Their problem though is keeping the puck out of their own net.  Martin Jones has not been as consistent this season and as a result the team has allowed the 11^th most GA/G.  To go along with that they have the 15^th ranked PK heading into the series.

Vegas has been nothing short of a Cinderella story since coming into the league last season.  In their 1^st year they went all the way to the Cup Finals and seem destined to do it again.  Though they haven’t been as explosive this year as in year one, they still find ways to win.  One key is that that they are 10 in the league in GA over the whole season. They’re also outshooting their opponents consistently while not allowing as many against.  The biggest problem they have is that their PP is ranked 21^st overall in the league and their PK is ranked 12^th. 

Since the trade deadline Vegas has put up an 11-5-2 record, scoring 62 goals and only allowing 44.  And while I’m not an advanced stats guy, their Corsi and Fenwick are both at 56.2%.  This means that they are controlling play during the game and have the puck on their sticks that much more throughout the game.  The Sharks on the other hand have gone 8-9-1.  Only scoring 56 goals and allowed 62, that is a number they’re on the wrong end of. Their Corsi and Fenwick are slightly under Vegas’ at 54.6 and 52.6 respectively.  

The X-Factors for this series will be Erik Karlsson and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Both have been missing time late in this season but are expected to be ready when this series starts.  While these are two very evenly matched teams, I find it very hard to bet against The Flower.  And while Vegas will need to have success on the special teams to win this series, Fleury is the biggest X-Factor of them all.   I’ll take Vegas in 6 games.

Pacific Division:

1) Calgary Flames vs WC2) Colorado Avalanche:

This is a series that should redefine what it means to play fast!  Both teams can fly up and down the ice and play some wide-open hockey while putting the puck in the back of the net.  But one team tends to do it quite a bit better than the other.  And while they put it in the net better, they also tend to find a way to keep the puck out as well.

The Av’s are a team who plays fast and is led by one of the best young players in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  If you somehow haven’t seen him or his highlights, then you should get on YouTube.  Either way, the Av’s rank 16^th in goal for this season while having the 7^th ranked PP in the league. When it comes to team defense, they rank 16^th in goals against as well and have the 25^th ranked PK at 78.8%.  Good news though is that since the trade deadline that number has improved dramatically up to 86.9% which would make them the best in the league if that was their yearly pace.

Calgary on the other hand has been a power house.  They went from being a team who missed the playoffs last season to becoming the division champs! They also put the puck in the net like crazy too.  Tied for 2^nd in goals scored with 289, they have five players with over 70pts this season.  But for some reason, they have a nonexistent powerplay. For the whole season they are 18^th in the league at 19.3%, but since the trade deadline it has been a nightmarish 8.6%.  And in that time, they have only won 11 of their 20 games going an even 11-9.

In those 20 games for Calgary though the PK has improved from their season average of 79.7 to 83.6.  So, while they’re struggling (to put it lightly) on the powerplay, the penalty kill has been great.  Goaltending will be their biggest question mark.  Since the deadline both Mike Smith and David Rittich have both played 10 games and neither has stood out.  Smith has gone 5-5 with a .911 SV% while Rittich has gone 6-4 with a .908 SV%. 

Comparing head to head…Calgary wins the offensive category, but only by a slim margin as both teams lack offensive depth.  Calgary has the far superior D-core, while Colorado has the better goaltenders in Varlamov and Grubauer.  Since the deadline Colorado has had a powerplay that’s been clicking at 21% as well.  All those factors lead me to pick Colorado here, but I’m not sure I can.  Most of the game is played at 5-on-5 and that is where the Flames dominate.  Because of that, I’ll take the Flames in 6.  But don’t be surprised if their goaltending faulters, they’ll only go as far as Mike Smith or David Rittich can carry them. 

And that wraps up the first round of the Western Conference!  The West is truly wide open and up for grabs with plenty of upsets that could easily happen, much more so than in the East.  And to recap my picks here, St. Louis in 6, Dallas in 7, Vegas in 6, and Calgary in 6.  Will I be right, or will I be wrong, as I said before, only time will tell.  Within a week we will see just how things have been shaping up and we’ll know the true contenders from the pretenders in the West as we race now towards Lord Stanley’s Cup!