Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round Two

I don’t know what else to say other than holy hell. Have we ever seen more upsets that this? The first round of this year’s playoffs has been everything and more that we have come to know and love about playoff hockey.  It has been fast and physical, had highlight goals and one hitter quitters, not to mention devastating upsets. In the East we saw two potential favorites get absolutely dominated and swept.  And in the West, though there have been no sweeps, we’ve seen all the preseason favorites get dismantled and eliminated as well.   But there is no sense in dwelling on those teams who are no longer with us, so let’s just move right on to those who are still in the fight!

Eastern Conference: 

Atlantic Division:

(No.2 Boston Bruins) vs (WC2) Columbus Blue Jackets:

Historic.  That is the best way to describe what the Blue Jackets did to the Lightning in their first-round match up. It was the first time ever that a No.8 seeded team had swept a Presidents Trophy winner.  Now I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t expect that and honestly, I didn’t even want them to make the playoffs.  I just thought it would be fun to see them miss after making all the trades back at the deadline and have it blow up in their face (I like the anarchy ok.).  But since they made it, what better way to create some chaos than to do what they did.

So how did they do it?  By the end of the first period of game one they were down 3-0 to the Lightning and looked like they were about to be turned into scorched earth.  But they came out after that like it never happened.  They played hard and fast, created non-stop pressure by constantly attacking, especially down low on the forecheck giving Tampa’s players no time and space.  Just like they needed to.  It wasn’t just one line that did this either, it was a full team effort from the forwards and defenseman alike.  In four games they have nine different players with at least 3-points (led by Duchene with 7-points), clearly showing that they’re getting contributions from all their lines.

At 5-on-5, play throughout the series was still controlled, overwhelmingly so, by the Lightning. When you look at the Corsi and Fenwick percentages, they’re dominated by Tampa (55.1% and 53.7% respectively).  This means that Columbus was far more opportunistic and cashed in on their chances when they got them.  They also dominated on the power-play going 5-for-10 (for those doing the math at home, that’s 50%).  These are the things they’ll have to continue to do in round two.  And if they do, they’ll have a great shot at advancing on to the conference finals.

But standing in their way is none other than the big, bad, Bruins!  Boston is a team that has that championship pedigree and that’s how they play.  Led upfront by Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak, they’re tenacious and highly skilled.  Patrolling the blue line is none other than Chara as well, if there is a scarier defenseman to go into the corners with, I’d like you to point him out.  And the great Fin in net, Tuukka Rask, who many, including myself, have doubted before but here he is fighting for wins and playing his best when it matters most.  But through this series he has a .928 SV%, you can’t ask for too much better than that.

And all these players mentioned and then some are how the Bruins managed to take down Toronto in the 1^st round, for the 2^nd straight year.  It was a hard-fought series for Boston as they fell behind 3-2, but they brought an insurmountable pressure that crumpled the Leafs in games 6 & 7.  They have skill that matches that of the high-end teams like Toronto, but what sets them apart is they embrace the grind like no other. 

While the skill players took care of business at 5-on-5 and the powerplay, which is humming along at 43.8% (only behind the Blue Jackets).  They also had 232 combined hits as a team which helped to break down the high flying Leafs.  That’s not at all to say they Leafs didn’t play physical against the Bruins either because they did, they out hit them.  But it was who was doing the hitting, and this series proved who can take it the most. And that was Boston.

This makes for one awesome series coming up here.  Columbus will be a well-rested team who plays a hard and fast pace with skill through their top-3 lines.  Boston is clearly coming in with minimal rest after a hard 7-games against the Leafs.  Head to head I don’t think Boston matches up player for player with the Blue Jackets either.  So, what will win out here, rested and youthful exuberance or the hardened veteran team that has been down this road before?  It’s a tough call.  But I’m going on a limb here and I’m gonna go with CBJ, in 7 games. 

I think Columbus will be able to get some mismatches as the series progresses, plus they have less wear and tear on their bodies.  But Bobrovsky will have to be the best player in every game if they plan to advance.  Boston is to good to give them any space and given any opportunity they’ll take advantage of it.

Metropolitan Division:

(No.2) New York Islanders vs (WC1) Carolina Hurricanes:

As we hit round two of the Metro, the Islanders were the first team to advance by playing “Islander hockey”.  I guess how I would define what I’ve seen to be as “Islander Hockey” is absolute shut down hockey played as a true five-man unit.  Playing like that in the regular season made them one of the top defensive teams in the league.  So far that same shut down style is working for them in the playoffs. 

In the regular season they allowed the least total goals against, through round one they’re in the lead in that category as well.  They were 17^th in the league in PK% in the regular season, after round one they’re 2nd in the league at a whooping 90%!  Most importantly is that Robin Lehner has been playing stellar.  After rehabbing not only his career, but his personal life, he has looked like the goalie everyone expected and knew he could be.  He is leading all goaltenders currently with a .956 SV% and a 1.47 GAA.  He is proving to be the backbone of this team. 

While their offense is still far from scary, their big guns came to play against the Pens. They’re led by Eberle and Barzel but have gotten contributions from many players as they have six players with 3-points or more, and 11 players with 2-points.  It may not sound like much, but in only 4-games, for a team not known for their offense, that’s pretty good production.  They’ll need to keep that up because they’re in for a stiff test with this next opponent.

And that opponent is led by Mr. Game 7 himself, the Carolina Hurricanes!  The Hurricanes finished the first round off by eliminating the defending Stanley Cup Champions in a double overtime, Game-7.  And in the process, they knock off the only remaining division champion in this year’s playoffs. They are a young and fun team to watch play with a lot of promise and a good mixture of veterans who’ve won, and youth who seem to play carefree and balls to the wall.

Balls to the wall is a bit of an understatement though, as Carolina, who has been dominating the possession stats all year long, continued to do that in the playoffs. Through the 1^st 6-games of the series (as I write this the stats are not updated to include game-7 yet) the Canes had a 59.7 Corsi and a 60.7 Fenwick and that is backed up by the difference in shots.  Carolina had 192 shots through 6-games and another 42-shots in game-7.  They held the Capitals to 153 shots in the 1^st 6-games and held them to only 37 shots in the double overtime game-7. 

Now I’m excited and happy they won but moving on they’re going to have to improve in some other areas of their game.  Goaltending was not bad for them as Mrazek made some key saves throughout the series, not to mention the high-powered offense they were facing.  But Mrazek will need to be better and the special teams will need to step it up as well.  Carolina has the worst Power Play of the remaining teams and their Penalty Kill is not much better.

Moving on against the Islanders I like the Hurricanes chances.  They play a hard, fast paced game, that will have to break through the structure of the Islanders.  The Islanders aren’t nearly as scary offensively, but they do find ways to put the puck in the net and have plenty of guys who are good at it.  They’re also one of the best at keeping it out of their own net.  Both teams suffer on the Power Play, but the Islanders dominate on the Penalty Kill.  So, whichever team is going to come out on top here will need to capitalize on their chances when they get them. But with that in mind, I’m going to keep riding that Mrazek train and take the Hurricanes in 6-games as the upsets continue. 

Western Conference:

Central Division:

(No.3) St. Louis Blues vs (WC1) Dallas Stars:

Upsets, did I say upsets?  This was surely one of them!  Its almost like St. Louis is my team this year.  I had them as one of my most improved teams of the offseason waaaaay back in the preseason.  Then they started the season and looked like they had the plague.  They were so bad that going into the new year, they were dead last in the league. They fought back as we all know and finished 3^rd in a tough Central Division. Then the come out in round one and won 3-games in Winnipeg before finishing them off at home, the only game a home team won in the 6-games this series lasted.

This was far from an easy series for the Blues as the Jets were many people’s preseason favorites, at least out of the West.  But the Blues played a hard team game and just went head to head against all the talent on the Jets and won the battles they needed too. Special teams were relatively even, neither team had a great penalty kill, but the Blues were better.  As for the Power-Play, they were both good, but once again the Blues were better.

The possession stats really show how 50/50 this series was.  In games 1, 5, and 6, the blues dominated the advanced possession stats, in games 2, 3, 4, they were dominated.  Along with that, in this series Binnington had a few games where he looked human at times. He will have to get closer to that super human form we saw throughout the regular season if they’re going to get through to the Conference final.

Man…did I mention something before about Dallas having some star players upfront that would carry them through the Preds?  And didn’t I talk about some horrible special teams?  Oh, that’s right I did!  And that was just the formula that the Dallas Stars used to advance to the 2^nd round against the St. Louis Blues.  That and great goaltending.

Dallas played a fast and opportunistic game and they had no other choice.  They we’re out performed most of the time in 5-on-5 hockey, but Ben Bishop played out of his mind and kept them in every game.  Bishop finished the series with a .945 SV% (2^nd best to Robin Lehner) and a 1.89 GAA.  He was also a huge part of the success of the teams Penalty Kill which has a 100% success rate (I told you that the Powerplay was gonna kill the Preds)!

It seems obvious that Dallas is one of the best teams defensively in these playoffs, but once you start to move on from that is where we find the holes in their game.  They’re lacking offensive depth and pressure.  While they’ve been averaging 33.3 SH/G, they’re only scoring an even 3 goals per game.  And the Power Play hasn’t been to eye catching either going 4-for-22 for 18.2%.  They’re also have been allowing 36.3 SA/G, 2^nd most to the Flames. 

Because of these factors, I have no choice but to pick the Blues here in the 2^nd round.  They have far more depth, play a more complete game, and have a superior power play.  I think the Blues will shut Dallas down in the 5-on-5 play and advance with relative ease. Blues in 5 games.

Pacific Division:

(No.2) San Jose Sharks vs (WC2) Colorado Avalanche:

Finally, we arrive at our Pacific Division match-up.  And it is brought to you by, yet another 1^st-round upset as the Colorado Avalanche rolled past the Calgary Flames in just 5-games!  That was a match-up I was on the fence about and was leaning towards picking Colorado but decided that since I already had two upsets in my picks for the West, I decided to go with the Flames…I was wrong to do that.  But hey, it isn’t the first time and it won’t be the last, when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs anything can happen.

How did the Av’s do it?  Easy, their big guns came to play, and they shut down the Calgary offense.  Obviously, they had two overtime games so the series wasn’t lopsided as one would think.  But in the clutch, there was Nathan MacKinnon and Miko Rantanen to lead the way.  The pair have combined for 17-points in 5 games, with 3-GWG and 2-PPG each.  And how about Tyson Barrie and Cale Makar on the blue line? Barrie has been driving that Power-Play from the back end with 4-assists.  Meanwhile Makar jumped into the lineup in game 3 of the series and only scored the eventual game winning goal in his 1^st ever game!

Clearly, the powerplay has been working for them, but they also dominated in 5-on-5 play as well.  Looking at the Corsi and Fenwick percentages, it wasn’t even close.  Colorado was controlling play with a 55.4% CF and a 56.1% FF.  That shows as well in their shots for per game as they’re outshooting everyone with an average of 41-SF/G.  This keeps the pressure off the goaltending and defense, so they don’t become overwhelmed.  If they can keep playing like this then they could be on their way to another upset special.

As for the Sharks…wow, they earned it.  In our 2^nd of 3 game 7’s through the 1^st round San Jose fought tooth and nail against the Knights to mount an epic comeback in not only the series, but in game 7.  After being down 3-1 in the series, they fought back to force a game 7.  Then in said game, being down 3-0 in the 3^rd period with roughly 11-minutes left to play their captain takes a nasty fall which results in a 5-minute power play and a game misconduct for a Vegas player.  This turned the tide of the game and eventually the series as San Jose went on to score 4-goals on this powerplay.  And then they completed the comeback in dramatic fashion as depth forward Barclay Goodrow scored a beauty with 2-minutes left in the 1^st overtime period to win it all.

But really, what did they do well in this series against Vegas?  If you take the 4 Power Play goals out of the equation, they only had a 12% success rate on the Power Play.  They’re one of the worst teams when shorthanded as well with only a 72.4% Penalty Kill.  And their 5-on-5 play was underwhelming to say the least as they average a 47.6 Corsi and a 44.9 Fenwick. And their goaltending has been shakier than a skyscraper in an earthquake.  Martin Jones (who is a goalie I actually like, I thought he could have been a Conn Smyth candidate when the Sharks lost to the Pens) has not played well.  He has a .904 SV% after the 1^st round, that is the worst of all the remaining goalies in the playoffs.

With all of that in mind, I think San Jose got extremely lucky in the 1^st round and with their shaky goaltending (along with weak defensive play) the Avalanche are going to bring it and give them all they can handle.  I must take the Av’s here.  As much as I like certain players on the Sharks and want to see them win a cup (Joe Thornton), I don’t see it happening.  Colorado is the faster, hungrier, and more dynamic team in this series.  Not to mention they’re the ones riding the hot goalie.  Expect Colorado to advance in 6-games.

And finally, this concludes our wrap up of the 1^st round and preview of the 2^nd round.  We looked at how each team made their way through the challenges of round one and what is expected as they advance to their next challenge.  Round one was truly full of shock and awe all around and I believe that it’s a wide-open race now when trying to pick a team as a favorite.  But that’s what sets the Stanley Cup Playoffs apart from all the rest.  Enjoy the 2^nd round!