Western Conference: Round 1

Now we’ve arrived at our look into round one of the Western Conference playoffs.  This is a conference that is truly up for grabs. Teams we expected to dominate haven’t and some that we didn’t have.  Its going to be a wild one, so place your bets now because some of these odds are great.  Let’s get right to it and look to see who should come out on top and advance to round two, and why.

Central Division:

2) Winnipeg Jets vs 3) St. Louis Blues:

This is the type of series we’ve all been waiting for and the best part is that it wont take place with games starting at 10:30 EST!  This central division matchup pits a preseason Stanley Cup favorite against one of the hottest teams in the history of the game against each other in what is sure to be one of the most exciting series in recent history.  And yes, there will be blood!

The favorite coming into the season of these two teams was the Winnipeg Jets and for most of the season they showed why.  With a high-flying offense, a mean and nasty defense, and one of the best young goalies in the game, they’ve been on track to make a deep playoff run all season long.  They’re 6^th in goals scored this season and 15^th in goals against. They have the 4^th ranked PP but the PK is only 23^rd in the league, that’s unexpectedly bad.  And since the trade deadline they have only amassed a 10-9-1 record.  What’s a bit more concerning is that goal scoring winger Patrik Laine isn’t scoring.  Since the deadline he has 2 goals in 20 games.  He must be better in this series to help propel the Jets over the Blues; they cannot do it without him.

On the other hand, the Blues are so hot no one can touch them!  As of January 2^nd, they were the last place team in the league with 34pts.  They finished the year with 99 meaning they went on from a 15-18-4 record the 1^st half to a 30-10-5 record in the new year. The only team better since then, the Tampa Bay Lightning with 31 wins.  In that time frame the PP has been steady at their season average of roughly 21% and the PK is boosted above their season average to 84.7%.  And while their offense isn’t the best in the league (they’ve scored the 15^th most goals in the league), they’ve allowed the 4^th least goals in the league.  And they’re tied for 3^rd in shots against.

And while Winnipeg has won 3-of-4 games this season head to head, all those games took place before the New Year, New Blues, showed up to play hockey.  Because of that, I give you my 1^st upset special of the Playoffs.  St. Louis Blues win this series in 6 games!  (Also, I think I told you the Blues would be a better team this year didn’t I…)

Central Division:

1) Nashville Predators vs WC1) Dallas Stars:

This is another “styles make fights” type of series.  The main questions are can the Dallas Stars high powered offensive stars take over against the tight, controlled, methodical team game that comes in waves by the Nashville Predators? 

Now when I say Dallas has some high-powered offensive stars, I mean that.  They have Benn, Seguin, and Radulov…that’s about where it ends for them.  The team is far from a goal scoring power house.  Dallas scored the 3^rd least goals in the entire league this season though they’re tied for the 10^th best PP in the league.  Looking at them from the other side of things, their team defense has been rather stellar and very underrated.  They allowed the 2^nd least goals all year at an even 200.  And the PK is rather impressive as well coming in at 3^rd in the league!  And as they say, your goalie is your best penalty killer and big Ben Bishop has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Bishop leads all goalies this season with a .934 SV% and is 2^nd with a 1.98 GAA.

Nashville is similar yet thought of differently.  When you think Nashville, you think of a team with a great defense and goaltending, but that can fire the puck into the net with the best of them when it counts. But that isn’t really the case either.  When it comes to keeping the puck out of their net, they’re one of the best.  They’re 4^th in the league in goals against and their PK is 4^th in the league (right behind the Stars).  When it comes to scoring goals though they’re quite a bit better at it than Dallas.  The Preds rank 19^th in the league, which isn’t great but its better than Dallas’s 28^th.  The PP though is absolutely 100% trash.  The Nashville PP comes in at 12.9%...dead last in the league.

And that is what will cause this series to turn on its head.  Both teams are relatively even in just about every way other than the powerplay. And even since the trade deadline where Nashville went out and traded for Simmonds, a man known for being a powerplay specialist, they’ve still only converted on 16% of those chances since then.  Meanwhile Dallas has been clicking away at 24.5% in that time.  Due to that I have no choice but to give the nod here to the Dallas Stars… Lets go Stars in 7.

Pacific Division:

2) San Jose Sharks vs 3) Vegas Golden Knights:

This has been the longest known 1^st round match up coming out of the Western Conference and what a dandy it should be.  San Jose has been a power house team in the West for nearly a decade and finally made it to the Cup Finals a few years ago.  This year they feel that they have a better team and have a better chance at winning the cup than before.  They’re 3^rd in the league in GF/G and have the 6^th ranked PP.  Their problem though is keeping the puck out of their own net.  Martin Jones has not been as consistent this season and as a result the team has allowed the 11^th most GA/G.  To go along with that they have the 15^th ranked PK heading into the series.

Vegas has been nothing short of a Cinderella story since coming into the league last season.  In their 1^st year they went all the way to the Cup Finals and seem destined to do it again.  Though they haven’t been as explosive this year as in year one, they still find ways to win.  One key is that that they are 10 in the league in GA over the whole season. They’re also outshooting their opponents consistently while not allowing as many against.  The biggest problem they have is that their PP is ranked 21^st overall in the league and their PK is ranked 12^th. 

Since the trade deadline Vegas has put up an 11-5-2 record, scoring 62 goals and only allowing 44.  And while I’m not an advanced stats guy, their Corsi and Fenwick are both at 56.2%.  This means that they are controlling play during the game and have the puck on their sticks that much more throughout the game.  The Sharks on the other hand have gone 8-9-1.  Only scoring 56 goals and allowed 62, that is a number they’re on the wrong end of. Their Corsi and Fenwick are slightly under Vegas’ at 54.6 and 52.6 respectively.  

The X-Factors for this series will be Erik Karlsson and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Both have been missing time late in this season but are expected to be ready when this series starts.  While these are two very evenly matched teams, I find it very hard to bet against The Flower.  And while Vegas will need to have success on the special teams to win this series, Fleury is the biggest X-Factor of them all.   I’ll take Vegas in 6 games.

Pacific Division:

1) Calgary Flames vs WC2) Colorado Avalanche:

This is a series that should redefine what it means to play fast!  Both teams can fly up and down the ice and play some wide-open hockey while putting the puck in the back of the net.  But one team tends to do it quite a bit better than the other.  And while they put it in the net better, they also tend to find a way to keep the puck out as well.

The Av’s are a team who plays fast and is led by one of the best young players in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  If you somehow haven’t seen him or his highlights, then you should get on YouTube.  Either way, the Av’s rank 16^th in goal for this season while having the 7^th ranked PP in the league. When it comes to team defense, they rank 16^th in goals against as well and have the 25^th ranked PK at 78.8%.  Good news though is that since the trade deadline that number has improved dramatically up to 86.9% which would make them the best in the league if that was their yearly pace.

Calgary on the other hand has been a power house.  They went from being a team who missed the playoffs last season to becoming the division champs! They also put the puck in the net like crazy too.  Tied for 2^nd in goals scored with 289, they have five players with over 70pts this season.  But for some reason, they have a nonexistent powerplay. For the whole season they are 18^th in the league at 19.3%, but since the trade deadline it has been a nightmarish 8.6%.  And in that time, they have only won 11 of their 20 games going an even 11-9.

In those 20 games for Calgary though the PK has improved from their season average of 79.7 to 83.6.  So, while they’re struggling (to put it lightly) on the powerplay, the penalty kill has been great.  Goaltending will be their biggest question mark.  Since the deadline both Mike Smith and David Rittich have both played 10 games and neither has stood out.  Smith has gone 5-5 with a .911 SV% while Rittich has gone 6-4 with a .908 SV%. 

Comparing head to head…Calgary wins the offensive category, but only by a slim margin as both teams lack offensive depth.  Calgary has the far superior D-core, while Colorado has the better goaltenders in Varlamov and Grubauer.  Since the deadline Colorado has had a powerplay that’s been clicking at 21% as well.  All those factors lead me to pick Colorado here, but I’m not sure I can.  Most of the game is played at 5-on-5 and that is where the Flames dominate.  Because of that, I’ll take the Flames in 6.  But don’t be surprised if their goaltending faulters, they’ll only go as far as Mike Smith or David Rittich can carry them. 

And that wraps up the first round of the Western Conference!  The West is truly wide open and up for grabs with plenty of upsets that could easily happen, much more so than in the East.  And to recap my picks here, St. Louis in 6, Dallas in 7, Vegas in 6, and Calgary in 6.  Will I be right, or will I be wrong, as I said before, only time will tell.  Within a week we will see just how things have been shaping up and we’ll know the true contenders from the pretenders in the West as we race now towards Lord Stanley’s Cup!

Trade Deadline Recap

Finally, the day has come where we get to breakdown and analyze all the trades that took place on the NHL trade deadline day.  As usual it was a slow morning, but around 1 o'clock with less than 2 hours to go things really started to pick up and bodies started to move.  And after the 3 PM deadline the trades kept rolling in as they get announced in sent into the NHL offices at the last minute.   Now obviously I can't talk about every single trade especially in this manner so I've grouped up couple of the major ones and will kind of go from least important to most important as we break these down. 

Let's start with the Boston Bruins shall we.  Boston is one of those teams in the Atlantic that just won't die and I don't understand it completely.  They have always had some solid pieces but they’re aging and most of their youth seems to be average at best (clearly this does not apply to Pastrnak or McAvoy).  But they’re still battling for a top spot in their division, so they went and made a nice depth move here.  Johansson is a player that can play in any forward role and usually is a mid-40’s point producer through the regular season, so he can be dependable as a depth scorer. He has proven capable at scoring in the playoffs as well putting up 30pts in his career. 

Currently it looks like he will be playing on the second line as a winger, but he has the capability of playing at center.  Johansson’s diversity is likely a big reason the Bruins went out and picked him up.  Their no. 2 center, David Krejci, has a long history of being injured. Adding Marcus is a great insurance move here just incase something happens.  All in all, they did not pay much to bring him in either, a 2^nd seems to be the going rate for a lot of players and the 4^th rounder is basically a throw in.

Moving on from Boston we head all the way out west to San Jose.  The Sharks made a nice little addition by bringing in Gustav Nyquist. The Goose was a hard one to move for Detroit as he had a full No-Trade Clause in his contract, so he basically got to pick and choose where he went if anywhere at all.  I am of the belief that a post-game chat between some fellow Swedes the evening before the deadline is what led to Nyquist going to San Jose.

So, what does he bring to the Sharks?  They’re a team that has been rolling all season long.  They’re 2^nd in GF/G and their Powerplay is at 25.3%, good for 4^th in the league.  Adding Nyquist here can only help these numbers get better, he is also having a career best season as well when it comes to scoring.  He is playing on the 3^rd line which is being centered by future hall of famer, Jumbo Joe Thornton, and on the other wing is Kevin LaBanc who is a grittier player down low and a bit more of a shoot 1^st type.

Personally, he is not the player I would have targeted if I was the Sharks, but that’s not to say he won’t produce there.  They’re getting a player who has speed, skill, and can pass with the best of them.  But they’re missing that true grit that is needed for a deep playoff run which I feel Nyquist lacks.  But playing on the 3^rd line he should be able to take advantage of some mismatches.  They didn’t pay an outlandish price either, like I said, a 2^nd rounder seems to be the going rate this year.

Back in the great American Midwest, the Columbus Blue Jackets were not done making moves.  After going all in and selling most of the farm they came back towards the end of the day and brought in Adam McQuaid to solidify their defense. He fits right into this team based on his size, but more importantly he will bring playoff experience to a younger core of players.

McQuaid is a hard nosed and mean defenseman known for his play in front of the net.  His best years are likely behind him as he is 32 years old now, but that doesn’t mean he can’t play either.  He missed a lot of time to injury this season which may be a blessing in disguise as he will have played less games heading into the playoffs therefore making him a bit more well rested.  He should also be more ready and able to dish out punishment to the opposing forwards in front of the net.

From the Blue Jackets we take a short trip to the South West and visit the contending Nashville Predators, who made two key moves at the deadline.  First, they picked-up Mikael Granlund from the Wild in one of the rare, straight up, true hockey trades.  Then they looked to the East and brought in Wayne Simmonds from the Flyers right near the buzzer as the deadline was fast approaching. 

Granlund is a high-end skill player who can do just about everything.  He is an elite passer with a great shot, did I mention he has some great puck control and can deke with some of the best.  He plays in all situations as well, killing penalties and most important for the Preds, he produces on the PP.  As a team Nashville has the 2^nd worst PP in the entire league with a 12.5% success rate.  If Granlund can help them improve that over the short term and into the playoffs, then this trade will be viewed as a win for Nashville.

Speaking of helping the powerplay, who better to get than Wayne Simmonds.  Simmonds has solidified his career by being one of the best net front players in the entire league.  In 8 years with the Flyers, Simmonds scored 203 goals, 91 of those goals were on the PP!!!  If adding Simmonds to your powerplay can’t fix it, then nothing will.  And if they don’t get this one aspect of their game figured out, they will be out of the playoffs before they realize what happened.

Now we can’t talk trades without talking about the biggest “prize” of the day and that would be Mark Stone heading out to Vegas just minutes before the 3 pm deadline hit. With all the talk about Ottawa demanding multiple picks and players for Stone, it seems Vegas got him at a nice percent off, like old produce from a grocery store.  But that is not to say that Stone is getting old and rotten at all, just the Senators trying to salvage anything they can.

By adding Stone, the Golden Knights become a deeper and deeper team offensively.  And though they’re underperforming this season compared to how last season went, they’re still racking up wins and the whole team is scoring by committee.  But once again this is considered one of the elite teams in the league, with a horrendous PP.  The have the 22^nd ranked PP in the league this year, and Stone, who is a proven scorer, should help them climb the rankings and have a much more respectable PP heading into the playoffs.

While the price that Vegas paid wasn’t as high as what was originally expected, they did give up one elite (and I mean ELITE) prospect in Erik Brannstrom.  Brannstrom is one of the best up and coming Swedish defenseman in all of hockey. He will step right into the NHL next season in a 2^nd pairing role for the Sens with Chabot likely on the 1^st pairing.  There is no better place to start for Ottawa’s rebuild than on defense, lets just hope they don’t squander what could be an amazing career. 

And lastly the team that seemed to do the most work on Deadline Day, the Winnipeg Jets.  They made a plethora of moves compared to most other teams.  One major trade, and a few smaller ones which will likely pay the biggest dividends in the long haul. 

Starting on the back end the Jets went out and added some depth.  They have had a few players banged up here and there, but they also lost Josh Morrisey for about a month now leading into the playoffs making these depth moves even more important.  The addition of Nathan Beaulieu is the most important player added here. He is a smooth skater who can make a good 1^st pass. He is also still young and developing his game.  Things just didn’t work in Buffalo for him, perhaps the Jets will give him a fresh start and chance to play some meaningful minutes, but he’ll have to perform well if he wants to stay in the lineup.

At forward the Jets brought in a depth center in Matt Hendricks.  Hendricks isn’t a guy who is going to score and put up points for any team.  But what he will do is win you important face offs late in games in the defensive zone.  He will clear the puck out across your blue line.  He will battle hard in the corners against the opposition’s best players.  And he’ll block shots for you without hesitation.  He is one of the glue guys on a team that bonds them and motivates everyone to work that much harder by doing the little things that add up to victory. 

And the big splash of the day that was made early by the Jets was the addition of the giant forward Kevin Hayes.  Hayes was likely the most expensive player acquired all day costing a 1^st round pick and a young NHL player in Brendan Lemieux.  

Hayes has slid right into the No.2 center role for the Jets giving them some much needed depth at the position.  He also makes them even bigger than they already were as he is their 6^th player who is over 6’5” in height.  Not to mention he can skate like a guy who is only 5’10” and he drives the net like a true power forward should.  He can play on the power play as well as the penalty kill, which the Jets really need some help with.  He will be a key addition and should fit in nicely with how the Jets play and make a large impact in this year’s playoffs. 

Now like I said in the open I can’t talk about every player and every trade in this manner, my hands would fall off and your eyes would rot out, and nobody wants that.  But these are the biggest names moved and most competitive teams, who all just got that much better.  If you notice, most teams that made moves to improve right now were the ones out west.  It is no surprise as the Western standings are so tight that every team is looking for any and every edge they can find.  How these moves pan out will be seen in the next two months as teams shuffle for their spots in the playoffs and look to play for a chance to win the ultimate prize, The Stanley Cup.

One Month In - The Pacific

Finally we've made it all the way from the East Coast to the West Coast as we get to examine how the teams in the Pacific Division have been fairing so far this year.  This is a division that has been very strong and competitive for over a decade and seen many Stanley Cup Champions and runners up in that time.  So far this year the teams have truly shocked the hockey world both with good performances and bad ones.  They have also had the first coach fired this season as well just a few days ago.  So lets break it down.

Pacific Division Standings as of 11-6-18 @ 7:30 P.M.

Sitting in 1st place is not a team one would have expected coming into the season as the Calgary Flames are the current owners of that spot.  Now I had them as an honorable mention for most improved teams coming into the season.  And in my preseason power rankings I had them very low, at spot 24.  They had been my team to make the playoffs finally the last few years and make some noise but after disappointing over and over, I just had to drop them.  But alas here we are!  The Flames are currently tied for the league lead in goals for at 52. Factoring in on a majority of their goals are all the familiar names in Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, and Lindholm up front and Giordano on the back end.  After that there is a steep fall off though.  The PP is mediocre though at best and the PK is the worst in the division, once again, numbers that must improve in the long run.  The somewhat surprising play has been in goal though and it ain't in the form of Mike Smith (told ya).  Smith is basically a .500 goalie with horrible numbers (3.71GAA/.871SV%) but David Rittich has stepped in and all but stolen the starting role.  Rittich has been carrying the team like a true starter posting a 2.23GAA and a .927SV%.

2nd place may be a bigger surprise that the current 1st place team.  Sitting in 2nd are the Vancouver Canucks!  Who?!  Yeah...the Canucks.  This is a team that was meant to challenge for worst team in the league and fight for that number one pick this coming summer...but not so fast.  They're being led by what looks to be the run away favorite for the Calder Trophy this year in Elias Pettersson (Who literally just blasted a rocket past Jimmy Howard).  They're getting some solid production as well out of Horvat and Boeser who both have 11pts, but it wont be enough to hold them this high in the standings.  Their special teams have definitely been keeping them in it though.  The PP is 3rd in the division at 20.5% and the PK is 3rd at 82.1% .  These are good numbers and they'll have to keep them up since they're generally being out shot by about 5 shots per game at this point...a bad trend.

3rd place is home to the Edmonton Oilers, a team we would have expected to be there.  Carried obviously by Connor McJesus, he is basically willing the team to be competitive.  The Nuge and Draisaitl have been performing well too though, with 16 and 15 pts respectively so far.  After that though, another team with a steep fall of in production.  A fun one to notice though is Alex Chiasson who has 6 goals in only 9 games...they may have something there.  Lucic surely isn't helping the cause though with 4 pts and a minus-6 in 14 games.  And though the team has the best PP in the division at 22% their PK is the 2nd worst at 72.1%.  Even more troubling is the play of Cam Talbot. He has 5-5-1 record with a 2.93 GAA and a .899 SV%.  Rookie goaltender Mikko Koskinen has posted some solid numbers so far though, albeit in only 3 games.  With all 3 games being wins he has a 2.01 GAA and a .935 SV%.  Great numbers...very small sample size.

In 4th place we have the San Jose Sharks.  On of those long time contender teams that has never really gotten over the hump, they should still be feared and respected.   This is a team full of veterans and game breakers and it shows in the balance results up and down this line up.  Would anyone have guessed that Tiemo Meier would be tied for the team lead in points?  Probably not, most would be asking who that is.  The summers 2nd biggest acquisition, Karlsson, has not really performed to expectation though.  His 7pts in 14 games isn't bad, but as a d-man, that minus- 9 certainly is.But the team is 2nd in goals for in the Pacific with 46.  The have the 2nd best PP and PK with 21.3% and 87.8%, and that's good for the 3rd best PK in the entire league as well.  They're even out shooting their opponents by almost 10 sots per game.  If these trends continue expect them to replace one of these current teams in the top-3.  Note as well that their current position in the standings is not good enough for either wild card playoff spot at the current moment.

Floating aimlessly in their pond are the 5th place Anaheim Ducks.  This is a team that simple cant put the puck in the net...but they're not even the worst team in the division at that!  Their true leader in Ryan Getzlaf has 10pts in 9 games, but the problem is keeping him in the line up these last few years.  Officially Rakell has the team lead in points with just 11 in 15 games.  In goal both Gibson and Miller have post solid SV% with .935 and .932 respectively.  But the overall GAA are a little high at 2.36 and 2.44 each.  Reason being for the high GAA with the lower SV% is that they're allowing 37 shots against per game which is the 2nd most in the league.  But this is made much worse by the fact they're hardly getting 25 shots themselves per night.  For those keeping track, that's 12 more shots against per night!  The PP and PK are actually respectable though and that is what has been helping to keep them afloat at this point, but don't expect it to last long.

6th place is where the Arizona Coyotes sit.  They're in a weird spot mostly due to the fact that they were shut out in 3 of their 1st 4 games of the season but since then have been on a tear for the most part, in all their wins they've scored 4 or more goals.  The overall stat lines don't jump out at you as Keller who is their leading scorer only has 10 pts thus far.  Galchenyuk who is back in the line up after an injury has 5 pts in his 6 games so that is certainly helping the team as well.  Most impressively though is that the team has 7 short hand goals already this season!  To go along with that they have the 2nd best PK in the league with a 90.2% (90.4% is the best).  And they've allowed a league low 29 GA!  If you take a look at their goal tending too those are fantastic numbers!  In Kuempers 4 games he has a 2.02 GAA and a .936SV% and in Raanta's 9 games he has a 2.10 GAA and a .929 SV%.  If they can get their PP working and find a bit more 5-on-5 offense I would expect them to jump a few spots and push for a wild card spot.

Last years history making Cinderella story currently is in the 7th place spot, they'd be your Vegas Golden Knights.  After last years season where they all came in with a chip on their shoulder and out worked just about every team they played...things are going basically in the complete opposite direction.  They let a few key players walk, but also replaced them this off season with arguably better players.  On of those is Paul Stastny who is on the IR and is expected to be for a while.  The other key pick up in Pacioretty has not been able to meet expectation just yet either with only 2 goals in 10 games.  They're led though by the same trio as last year though in Marchy, Karlsson, and Smith.  Alex Tuch has only managed 6 games this season but has 5pts in those games.  The Flower has not been the same either and can you blame him? He is putting up a 2.51 GAA and a 901 SV% currently.  That's a bit below where you'd expect him to be.  As a team they're just snake bitten though.  They're averaging 33.5 SF/G but only scoring 2.3 GF/G.  All while only allowing 25.2 SA/G, but they have a 2.7 GA/G.  And while the PK is middle of the pack, the PP is 4th worst in the league.  Maybe if they can get the PP fixed that will fix most of their problems and get them back i the playoff hunt.

And finally team 31 of 31...your Los Angeles Kings!  They're the 1st team this season to fire their coach,  followed shortly by Chicago.  But lets keep this on the Kings shall we. A league worst (at the moment anyway) goal differential of minus-17.  A league worst in GF/G with only 28 goals scored all season long.  The 6th worst PP in the league at 14.9%.  The PK is actually middle of the pack at 81.1%.  In goal Jonathan Quick is out of the line up once again...don't think it will be much of a difference though as he was win less in 4 games with a 4.55 GAA and a .845 SV%.  Jack Campbell has taken over though and has been somewhat respectable with a 2.67 GAA and a .912 SV%.  Upfront there is not a single plus player in the line up and Ilya Kovalchuk is their leading producer with 11pts in 13 games. I guess the only thing left to so here is start analyzing the trade bait and find a fit for some of these guys.

And that will finally conclude the breakdown of the standings at this point and how each team has gotten to where they are now.  I know I may not have covered everything or every story line with every team, it'd be damn near impossible!  But I'll be damned if I didn't cover a lot more than I expected to at the same time! The only thing left to do is sit back now and watch the rest of the season unfold and see what changes and what doesn't.  As I've said, there certainly have been plenty of surprises both good and bad this season and it is only one month in, we're far from finished!