Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round Two

I don’t know what else to say other than holy hell. Have we ever seen more upsets that this? The first round of this year’s playoffs has been everything and more that we have come to know and love about playoff hockey.  It has been fast and physical, had highlight goals and one hitter quitters, not to mention devastating upsets. In the East we saw two potential favorites get absolutely dominated and swept.  And in the West, though there have been no sweeps, we’ve seen all the preseason favorites get dismantled and eliminated as well.   But there is no sense in dwelling on those teams who are no longer with us, so let’s just move right on to those who are still in the fight!

Eastern Conference: 

Atlantic Division:

(No.2 Boston Bruins) vs (WC2) Columbus Blue Jackets:

Historic.  That is the best way to describe what the Blue Jackets did to the Lightning in their first-round match up. It was the first time ever that a No.8 seeded team had swept a Presidents Trophy winner.  Now I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t expect that and honestly, I didn’t even want them to make the playoffs.  I just thought it would be fun to see them miss after making all the trades back at the deadline and have it blow up in their face (I like the anarchy ok.).  But since they made it, what better way to create some chaos than to do what they did.

So how did they do it?  By the end of the first period of game one they were down 3-0 to the Lightning and looked like they were about to be turned into scorched earth.  But they came out after that like it never happened.  They played hard and fast, created non-stop pressure by constantly attacking, especially down low on the forecheck giving Tampa’s players no time and space.  Just like they needed to.  It wasn’t just one line that did this either, it was a full team effort from the forwards and defenseman alike.  In four games they have nine different players with at least 3-points (led by Duchene with 7-points), clearly showing that they’re getting contributions from all their lines.

At 5-on-5, play throughout the series was still controlled, overwhelmingly so, by the Lightning. When you look at the Corsi and Fenwick percentages, they’re dominated by Tampa (55.1% and 53.7% respectively).  This means that Columbus was far more opportunistic and cashed in on their chances when they got them.  They also dominated on the power-play going 5-for-10 (for those doing the math at home, that’s 50%).  These are the things they’ll have to continue to do in round two.  And if they do, they’ll have a great shot at advancing on to the conference finals.

But standing in their way is none other than the big, bad, Bruins!  Boston is a team that has that championship pedigree and that’s how they play.  Led upfront by Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak, they’re tenacious and highly skilled.  Patrolling the blue line is none other than Chara as well, if there is a scarier defenseman to go into the corners with, I’d like you to point him out.  And the great Fin in net, Tuukka Rask, who many, including myself, have doubted before but here he is fighting for wins and playing his best when it matters most.  But through this series he has a .928 SV%, you can’t ask for too much better than that.

And all these players mentioned and then some are how the Bruins managed to take down Toronto in the 1^st round, for the 2^nd straight year.  It was a hard-fought series for Boston as they fell behind 3-2, but they brought an insurmountable pressure that crumpled the Leafs in games 6 & 7.  They have skill that matches that of the high-end teams like Toronto, but what sets them apart is they embrace the grind like no other. 

While the skill players took care of business at 5-on-5 and the powerplay, which is humming along at 43.8% (only behind the Blue Jackets).  They also had 232 combined hits as a team which helped to break down the high flying Leafs.  That’s not at all to say they Leafs didn’t play physical against the Bruins either because they did, they out hit them.  But it was who was doing the hitting, and this series proved who can take it the most. And that was Boston.

This makes for one awesome series coming up here.  Columbus will be a well-rested team who plays a hard and fast pace with skill through their top-3 lines.  Boston is clearly coming in with minimal rest after a hard 7-games against the Leafs.  Head to head I don’t think Boston matches up player for player with the Blue Jackets either.  So, what will win out here, rested and youthful exuberance or the hardened veteran team that has been down this road before?  It’s a tough call.  But I’m going on a limb here and I’m gonna go with CBJ, in 7 games. 

I think Columbus will be able to get some mismatches as the series progresses, plus they have less wear and tear on their bodies.  But Bobrovsky will have to be the best player in every game if they plan to advance.  Boston is to good to give them any space and given any opportunity they’ll take advantage of it.

Metropolitan Division:

(No.2) New York Islanders vs (WC1) Carolina Hurricanes:

As we hit round two of the Metro, the Islanders were the first team to advance by playing “Islander hockey”.  I guess how I would define what I’ve seen to be as “Islander Hockey” is absolute shut down hockey played as a true five-man unit.  Playing like that in the regular season made them one of the top defensive teams in the league.  So far that same shut down style is working for them in the playoffs. 

In the regular season they allowed the least total goals against, through round one they’re in the lead in that category as well.  They were 17^th in the league in PK% in the regular season, after round one they’re 2nd in the league at a whooping 90%!  Most importantly is that Robin Lehner has been playing stellar.  After rehabbing not only his career, but his personal life, he has looked like the goalie everyone expected and knew he could be.  He is leading all goaltenders currently with a .956 SV% and a 1.47 GAA.  He is proving to be the backbone of this team. 

While their offense is still far from scary, their big guns came to play against the Pens. They’re led by Eberle and Barzel but have gotten contributions from many players as they have six players with 3-points or more, and 11 players with 2-points.  It may not sound like much, but in only 4-games, for a team not known for their offense, that’s pretty good production.  They’ll need to keep that up because they’re in for a stiff test with this next opponent.

And that opponent is led by Mr. Game 7 himself, the Carolina Hurricanes!  The Hurricanes finished the first round off by eliminating the defending Stanley Cup Champions in a double overtime, Game-7.  And in the process, they knock off the only remaining division champion in this year’s playoffs. They are a young and fun team to watch play with a lot of promise and a good mixture of veterans who’ve won, and youth who seem to play carefree and balls to the wall.

Balls to the wall is a bit of an understatement though, as Carolina, who has been dominating the possession stats all year long, continued to do that in the playoffs. Through the 1^st 6-games of the series (as I write this the stats are not updated to include game-7 yet) the Canes had a 59.7 Corsi and a 60.7 Fenwick and that is backed up by the difference in shots.  Carolina had 192 shots through 6-games and another 42-shots in game-7.  They held the Capitals to 153 shots in the 1^st 6-games and held them to only 37 shots in the double overtime game-7. 

Now I’m excited and happy they won but moving on they’re going to have to improve in some other areas of their game.  Goaltending was not bad for them as Mrazek made some key saves throughout the series, not to mention the high-powered offense they were facing.  But Mrazek will need to be better and the special teams will need to step it up as well.  Carolina has the worst Power Play of the remaining teams and their Penalty Kill is not much better.

Moving on against the Islanders I like the Hurricanes chances.  They play a hard, fast paced game, that will have to break through the structure of the Islanders.  The Islanders aren’t nearly as scary offensively, but they do find ways to put the puck in the net and have plenty of guys who are good at it.  They’re also one of the best at keeping it out of their own net.  Both teams suffer on the Power Play, but the Islanders dominate on the Penalty Kill.  So, whichever team is going to come out on top here will need to capitalize on their chances when they get them. But with that in mind, I’m going to keep riding that Mrazek train and take the Hurricanes in 6-games as the upsets continue. 

Western Conference:

Central Division:

(No.3) St. Louis Blues vs (WC1) Dallas Stars:

Upsets, did I say upsets?  This was surely one of them!  Its almost like St. Louis is my team this year.  I had them as one of my most improved teams of the offseason waaaaay back in the preseason.  Then they started the season and looked like they had the plague.  They were so bad that going into the new year, they were dead last in the league. They fought back as we all know and finished 3^rd in a tough Central Division. Then the come out in round one and won 3-games in Winnipeg before finishing them off at home, the only game a home team won in the 6-games this series lasted.

This was far from an easy series for the Blues as the Jets were many people’s preseason favorites, at least out of the West.  But the Blues played a hard team game and just went head to head against all the talent on the Jets and won the battles they needed too. Special teams were relatively even, neither team had a great penalty kill, but the Blues were better.  As for the Power-Play, they were both good, but once again the Blues were better.

The possession stats really show how 50/50 this series was.  In games 1, 5, and 6, the blues dominated the advanced possession stats, in games 2, 3, 4, they were dominated.  Along with that, in this series Binnington had a few games where he looked human at times. He will have to get closer to that super human form we saw throughout the regular season if they’re going to get through to the Conference final.

Man…did I mention something before about Dallas having some star players upfront that would carry them through the Preds?  And didn’t I talk about some horrible special teams?  Oh, that’s right I did!  And that was just the formula that the Dallas Stars used to advance to the 2^nd round against the St. Louis Blues.  That and great goaltending.

Dallas played a fast and opportunistic game and they had no other choice.  They we’re out performed most of the time in 5-on-5 hockey, but Ben Bishop played out of his mind and kept them in every game.  Bishop finished the series with a .945 SV% (2^nd best to Robin Lehner) and a 1.89 GAA.  He was also a huge part of the success of the teams Penalty Kill which has a 100% success rate (I told you that the Powerplay was gonna kill the Preds)!

It seems obvious that Dallas is one of the best teams defensively in these playoffs, but once you start to move on from that is where we find the holes in their game.  They’re lacking offensive depth and pressure.  While they’ve been averaging 33.3 SH/G, they’re only scoring an even 3 goals per game.  And the Power Play hasn’t been to eye catching either going 4-for-22 for 18.2%.  They’re also have been allowing 36.3 SA/G, 2^nd most to the Flames. 

Because of these factors, I have no choice but to pick the Blues here in the 2^nd round.  They have far more depth, play a more complete game, and have a superior power play.  I think the Blues will shut Dallas down in the 5-on-5 play and advance with relative ease. Blues in 5 games.

Pacific Division:

(No.2) San Jose Sharks vs (WC2) Colorado Avalanche:

Finally, we arrive at our Pacific Division match-up.  And it is brought to you by, yet another 1^st-round upset as the Colorado Avalanche rolled past the Calgary Flames in just 5-games!  That was a match-up I was on the fence about and was leaning towards picking Colorado but decided that since I already had two upsets in my picks for the West, I decided to go with the Flames…I was wrong to do that.  But hey, it isn’t the first time and it won’t be the last, when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs anything can happen.

How did the Av’s do it?  Easy, their big guns came to play, and they shut down the Calgary offense.  Obviously, they had two overtime games so the series wasn’t lopsided as one would think.  But in the clutch, there was Nathan MacKinnon and Miko Rantanen to lead the way.  The pair have combined for 17-points in 5 games, with 3-GWG and 2-PPG each.  And how about Tyson Barrie and Cale Makar on the blue line? Barrie has been driving that Power-Play from the back end with 4-assists.  Meanwhile Makar jumped into the lineup in game 3 of the series and only scored the eventual game winning goal in his 1^st ever game!

Clearly, the powerplay has been working for them, but they also dominated in 5-on-5 play as well.  Looking at the Corsi and Fenwick percentages, it wasn’t even close.  Colorado was controlling play with a 55.4% CF and a 56.1% FF.  That shows as well in their shots for per game as they’re outshooting everyone with an average of 41-SF/G.  This keeps the pressure off the goaltending and defense, so they don’t become overwhelmed.  If they can keep playing like this then they could be on their way to another upset special.

As for the Sharks…wow, they earned it.  In our 2^nd of 3 game 7’s through the 1^st round San Jose fought tooth and nail against the Knights to mount an epic comeback in not only the series, but in game 7.  After being down 3-1 in the series, they fought back to force a game 7.  Then in said game, being down 3-0 in the 3^rd period with roughly 11-minutes left to play their captain takes a nasty fall which results in a 5-minute power play and a game misconduct for a Vegas player.  This turned the tide of the game and eventually the series as San Jose went on to score 4-goals on this powerplay.  And then they completed the comeback in dramatic fashion as depth forward Barclay Goodrow scored a beauty with 2-minutes left in the 1^st overtime period to win it all.

But really, what did they do well in this series against Vegas?  If you take the 4 Power Play goals out of the equation, they only had a 12% success rate on the Power Play.  They’re one of the worst teams when shorthanded as well with only a 72.4% Penalty Kill.  And their 5-on-5 play was underwhelming to say the least as they average a 47.6 Corsi and a 44.9 Fenwick. And their goaltending has been shakier than a skyscraper in an earthquake.  Martin Jones (who is a goalie I actually like, I thought he could have been a Conn Smyth candidate when the Sharks lost to the Pens) has not played well.  He has a .904 SV% after the 1^st round, that is the worst of all the remaining goalies in the playoffs.

With all of that in mind, I think San Jose got extremely lucky in the 1^st round and with their shaky goaltending (along with weak defensive play) the Avalanche are going to bring it and give them all they can handle.  I must take the Av’s here.  As much as I like certain players on the Sharks and want to see them win a cup (Joe Thornton), I don’t see it happening.  Colorado is the faster, hungrier, and more dynamic team in this series.  Not to mention they’re the ones riding the hot goalie.  Expect Colorado to advance in 6-games.

And finally, this concludes our wrap up of the 1^st round and preview of the 2^nd round.  We looked at how each team made their way through the challenges of round one and what is expected as they advance to their next challenge.  Round one was truly full of shock and awe all around and I believe that it’s a wide-open race now when trying to pick a team as a favorite.  But that’s what sets the Stanley Cup Playoffs apart from all the rest.  Enjoy the 2^nd round!

Western Conference: Round 1

Now we’ve arrived at our look into round one of the Western Conference playoffs.  This is a conference that is truly up for grabs. Teams we expected to dominate haven’t and some that we didn’t have.  Its going to be a wild one, so place your bets now because some of these odds are great.  Let’s get right to it and look to see who should come out on top and advance to round two, and why.

Central Division:

2) Winnipeg Jets vs 3) St. Louis Blues:

This is the type of series we’ve all been waiting for and the best part is that it wont take place with games starting at 10:30 EST!  This central division matchup pits a preseason Stanley Cup favorite against one of the hottest teams in the history of the game against each other in what is sure to be one of the most exciting series in recent history.  And yes, there will be blood!

The favorite coming into the season of these two teams was the Winnipeg Jets and for most of the season they showed why.  With a high-flying offense, a mean and nasty defense, and one of the best young goalies in the game, they’ve been on track to make a deep playoff run all season long.  They’re 6^th in goals scored this season and 15^th in goals against. They have the 4^th ranked PP but the PK is only 23^rd in the league, that’s unexpectedly bad.  And since the trade deadline they have only amassed a 10-9-1 record.  What’s a bit more concerning is that goal scoring winger Patrik Laine isn’t scoring.  Since the deadline he has 2 goals in 20 games.  He must be better in this series to help propel the Jets over the Blues; they cannot do it without him.

On the other hand, the Blues are so hot no one can touch them!  As of January 2^nd, they were the last place team in the league with 34pts.  They finished the year with 99 meaning they went on from a 15-18-4 record the 1^st half to a 30-10-5 record in the new year. The only team better since then, the Tampa Bay Lightning with 31 wins.  In that time frame the PP has been steady at their season average of roughly 21% and the PK is boosted above their season average to 84.7%.  And while their offense isn’t the best in the league (they’ve scored the 15^th most goals in the league), they’ve allowed the 4^th least goals in the league.  And they’re tied for 3^rd in shots against.

And while Winnipeg has won 3-of-4 games this season head to head, all those games took place before the New Year, New Blues, showed up to play hockey.  Because of that, I give you my 1^st upset special of the Playoffs.  St. Louis Blues win this series in 6 games!  (Also, I think I told you the Blues would be a better team this year didn’t I…)

Central Division:

1) Nashville Predators vs WC1) Dallas Stars:

This is another “styles make fights” type of series.  The main questions are can the Dallas Stars high powered offensive stars take over against the tight, controlled, methodical team game that comes in waves by the Nashville Predators? 

Now when I say Dallas has some high-powered offensive stars, I mean that.  They have Benn, Seguin, and Radulov…that’s about where it ends for them.  The team is far from a goal scoring power house.  Dallas scored the 3^rd least goals in the entire league this season though they’re tied for the 10^th best PP in the league.  Looking at them from the other side of things, their team defense has been rather stellar and very underrated.  They allowed the 2^nd least goals all year at an even 200.  And the PK is rather impressive as well coming in at 3^rd in the league!  And as they say, your goalie is your best penalty killer and big Ben Bishop has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Bishop leads all goalies this season with a .934 SV% and is 2^nd with a 1.98 GAA.

Nashville is similar yet thought of differently.  When you think Nashville, you think of a team with a great defense and goaltending, but that can fire the puck into the net with the best of them when it counts. But that isn’t really the case either.  When it comes to keeping the puck out of their net, they’re one of the best.  They’re 4^th in the league in goals against and their PK is 4^th in the league (right behind the Stars).  When it comes to scoring goals though they’re quite a bit better at it than Dallas.  The Preds rank 19^th in the league, which isn’t great but its better than Dallas’s 28^th.  The PP though is absolutely 100% trash.  The Nashville PP comes in at 12.9%...dead last in the league.

And that is what will cause this series to turn on its head.  Both teams are relatively even in just about every way other than the powerplay. And even since the trade deadline where Nashville went out and traded for Simmonds, a man known for being a powerplay specialist, they’ve still only converted on 16% of those chances since then.  Meanwhile Dallas has been clicking away at 24.5% in that time.  Due to that I have no choice but to give the nod here to the Dallas Stars… Lets go Stars in 7.

Pacific Division:

2) San Jose Sharks vs 3) Vegas Golden Knights:

This has been the longest known 1^st round match up coming out of the Western Conference and what a dandy it should be.  San Jose has been a power house team in the West for nearly a decade and finally made it to the Cup Finals a few years ago.  This year they feel that they have a better team and have a better chance at winning the cup than before.  They’re 3^rd in the league in GF/G and have the 6^th ranked PP.  Their problem though is keeping the puck out of their own net.  Martin Jones has not been as consistent this season and as a result the team has allowed the 11^th most GA/G.  To go along with that they have the 15^th ranked PK heading into the series.

Vegas has been nothing short of a Cinderella story since coming into the league last season.  In their 1^st year they went all the way to the Cup Finals and seem destined to do it again.  Though they haven’t been as explosive this year as in year one, they still find ways to win.  One key is that that they are 10 in the league in GA over the whole season. They’re also outshooting their opponents consistently while not allowing as many against.  The biggest problem they have is that their PP is ranked 21^st overall in the league and their PK is ranked 12^th. 

Since the trade deadline Vegas has put up an 11-5-2 record, scoring 62 goals and only allowing 44.  And while I’m not an advanced stats guy, their Corsi and Fenwick are both at 56.2%.  This means that they are controlling play during the game and have the puck on their sticks that much more throughout the game.  The Sharks on the other hand have gone 8-9-1.  Only scoring 56 goals and allowed 62, that is a number they’re on the wrong end of. Their Corsi and Fenwick are slightly under Vegas’ at 54.6 and 52.6 respectively.  

The X-Factors for this series will be Erik Karlsson and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Both have been missing time late in this season but are expected to be ready when this series starts.  While these are two very evenly matched teams, I find it very hard to bet against The Flower.  And while Vegas will need to have success on the special teams to win this series, Fleury is the biggest X-Factor of them all.   I’ll take Vegas in 6 games.

Pacific Division:

1) Calgary Flames vs WC2) Colorado Avalanche:

This is a series that should redefine what it means to play fast!  Both teams can fly up and down the ice and play some wide-open hockey while putting the puck in the back of the net.  But one team tends to do it quite a bit better than the other.  And while they put it in the net better, they also tend to find a way to keep the puck out as well.

The Av’s are a team who plays fast and is led by one of the best young players in the league in Nathan MacKinnon.  If you somehow haven’t seen him or his highlights, then you should get on YouTube.  Either way, the Av’s rank 16^th in goal for this season while having the 7^th ranked PP in the league. When it comes to team defense, they rank 16^th in goals against as well and have the 25^th ranked PK at 78.8%.  Good news though is that since the trade deadline that number has improved dramatically up to 86.9% which would make them the best in the league if that was their yearly pace.

Calgary on the other hand has been a power house.  They went from being a team who missed the playoffs last season to becoming the division champs! They also put the puck in the net like crazy too.  Tied for 2^nd in goals scored with 289, they have five players with over 70pts this season.  But for some reason, they have a nonexistent powerplay. For the whole season they are 18^th in the league at 19.3%, but since the trade deadline it has been a nightmarish 8.6%.  And in that time, they have only won 11 of their 20 games going an even 11-9.

In those 20 games for Calgary though the PK has improved from their season average of 79.7 to 83.6.  So, while they’re struggling (to put it lightly) on the powerplay, the penalty kill has been great.  Goaltending will be their biggest question mark.  Since the deadline both Mike Smith and David Rittich have both played 10 games and neither has stood out.  Smith has gone 5-5 with a .911 SV% while Rittich has gone 6-4 with a .908 SV%. 

Comparing head to head…Calgary wins the offensive category, but only by a slim margin as both teams lack offensive depth.  Calgary has the far superior D-core, while Colorado has the better goaltenders in Varlamov and Grubauer.  Since the deadline Colorado has had a powerplay that’s been clicking at 21% as well.  All those factors lead me to pick Colorado here, but I’m not sure I can.  Most of the game is played at 5-on-5 and that is where the Flames dominate.  Because of that, I’ll take the Flames in 6.  But don’t be surprised if their goaltending faulters, they’ll only go as far as Mike Smith or David Rittich can carry them. 

And that wraps up the first round of the Western Conference!  The West is truly wide open and up for grabs with plenty of upsets that could easily happen, much more so than in the East.  And to recap my picks here, St. Louis in 6, Dallas in 7, Vegas in 6, and Calgary in 6.  Will I be right, or will I be wrong, as I said before, only time will tell.  Within a week we will see just how things have been shaping up and we’ll know the true contenders from the pretenders in the West as we race now towards Lord Stanley’s Cup!

Eastern Conference: Round 1!

Here we go!  The playoffs have finally arrived, and it took literally until the very last day of the regular season to find out the different matchups we’re going to get to see here.  It has been an incredible season with so many highs and lows for both teams and individual players.  And now it all comes down to this, the race to Lord Stanley’s Cup.  Now let’s take a closer look at our matchups for round one in the Eastern Conference.

Atlantic Division:

2) Boston Bruins vs 3) Toronto Maple Leafs:

Well now if this isn’t a story, we’ve seen a few times in recent years. I’d certainly say so, but maybe this time, we’ll have a different ending…or maybe not.  Toronto had come into this season as one of the sexy picks to win the Stanley Cup.  After all, they have some of the best young talent in all of hockey.  And they landed the biggest fish in the free agent market over the summer in John Tavares.  He certainly has not disappointed so far, setting all new career highs in just about every statistical category.  But so far, this regular season it hasn’t seemed to be enough against the big bad Bruins.

Boston will have won 3 of the 4 meetings the teams had during the regular season coming into this series.  And while the regular season counts for very little when it comes to the playoffs, you must wonder how deep in minds of the young Leafs the Bruins really are.  They took them out easily in the playoffs last season and that has carried over in the head to head matchups this season as well.  And for all the fire power the Leafs have up front, Boston still has the superior power play, which will make a difference in this series.  And while their PK’s are basically even through the regular season, I think the nod must go to Boston here when you compare the defenseman for each team.  Chara may be 41 years old, but he is still Chara.

Final Answer:  I have no choice but to take Boston here.  Aside from being the far more experienced team, they’ve shown nothing but dominance over the Leafs in recent years.  Not to mention they have a physicality that Toronto sorely lacks. I must take Boston in 6.

Atlantic Division:

1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs WC2) Columbus Blue Jackets:

In our premier Eastern Conference matchup, we have the 2^nd most dominant team in the history of the league in the Tampa Bay Lightning.  They are taking on a team who sold it all and bought the farm for their chance at glory this year, the Columbus Blue Jackets.  This is truly a David vs Goliath fight if there ever was one.

Tampa Bay has shown all year that they’re the best team in the league, hands down.  They won 62 games this year, 12 more than the next best team.  They have the leading scorer in the league in Kucherov with 128 pts, 12 more than the next best in McDavid.  They have three different 40- goal scorers in Kuch, Stamkos, and Point.  They’ve not only outscored their opponents but they’re not allowing a lot either.  They’re tied for 5^th in the league in least goals against as well.  When it comes to special teams, they’re the best there too.  The have the best PP in the league with a 28.2% of success.  And the PK is an even 85%, tied with Arizona for tops in the league.

When you look at all that Tampa has accomplished, how can the Blue Jackets even stand a chance?  Columbus is a team that has never won a single round in the playoffs.  They had the Washington Capitals on the ropes last year and then collapsed in what seemed to be their best chance in franchise history.  But now with the team they have assembled and the battles that they have had to go through just to make it into the playoffs…they have a punchers chance. 

They come into this series playing their best hockey of the year winning 7 of the last 8 games.  In those games they have also had 3 shut outs, leading one to believe that Bobrovsky has finally found his game.  Bob is the ultimate X-factor for this series as well.  He is the only active 2-time Vezina Trophy winner. Since March he has gone 10-5 with a .933 SV% and a 1.86 GAA.  Looking at how the forwards compare against the Lightnings, you don’t think they stand much of a chance.  But they have very solid players up and down their line-up.  

The key for them is that they play a team game and they’ll need to follow the lead of their coach in John Tortorella. They’re skilled and have great depth as well.  They must be physical at every chance and eliminate time and space from Tampa.  If they can do that…they’ll have a chance.

That said…I got Tampa…in Five. 

Metropolitan Division:

2) New York Islanders vs 3) Pittsburgh Penguins:

Boy oh boy, this will be a fun series here.  To start the season who would have thought that the Islanders would have even sniffed the playoffs, let alone lead their division most of the year.  But here we are, they didn’t hold on to the top spot but they’re sitting here with home ice through the 1^st round against the battle tested Penguins.  And if anyone knows how a team should play against Pittsburgh, its Barry Trotz.

The key to this series for the Islanders is to keep playing their team game.  Barry Trotz came over from Washington immediately after winning the Stanley Cup last year and turned the worst defensive team in the league into arguably the best one.  They allowed a league low 191 goals against.  When it comes to special teams though, they’re just … not that good.  They have the 29^th ranked PP and they PK is 17^th, playing a team like the Penguins, they must be better.

The Pens are a team who has had their struggles this year but still find a way to get it done.  Early on they had struggles in net from Matt Murray and they just couldn’t win many games. But since the trade deadline they have been on a roll.  They have a 12-4-4 record since then and they’re PP has been clicking with a 24.5% success rate. But the PK on the other hand has only been at 77.5 in that time. Once again though, Crosby has topped 100pts in a season and Jake Guentzel has even hit the 40-goal mark. 

This really is a “styles make fights” type of series and it should be about as even of a series as we can get.  Can the defensive prowess of the Islanders shut down the battle tested warriors that are led by Crosby and Malkin? Time will tell.  For me, I love a good upset, but I’m going Pittsburgh, in 6.

Metropolitan Division:

1) Washington Capitals vs WC1) Carolina Hurricanes:

And now for our last matchup in the East and it is another David vs Goliath scenario…though not as bad as Columbus’s odds.  We have the up-start Carolina Hurricanes (didn’t I tell you they’d be a better team this year!) facing off against the reigning, defending, Stanley Cup Champions of the Wooooooooorld, The Washington Capitals!

The Hurricanes have been a fun team to watch all season long.  They play a fast, high flying style of hockey which is backed up by a top-5 D-core as well.  The questions that they have always had have been in net.  But it seems they may have found an answer in the combo of Mrazek and McElhinney.  It seems that Mrazek should get the start as well, its not like he hasn’t earned it either. He’s played 40 games this season, and 10 since March.  In those last 10 he has gone 8-2 with a .942 SV% and a 1.8 GAA.  He also has a history of playing well against Ovi and his Capitals.

As a team the Canes don’t score a lot though, but they trend into the right direction.  They outshoot everyone and they’ve done that all year and they typically don’t allow many shots either, being ranked 1^st and 3^rd in those two categories respectively.  And they’re tied with Tampa for 5^th in GA this season as well. On special teams they rank 20^th on the PP and 8^th on the PK.  They will need to take advantage of their PP chances in this series.

As for the Caps, we know what they’re all about.  They have a power house of a team and have for nearly a decade.  Led by their captain, The Great 8, they will have their eyes set on a Championship repeat.  In net they have Holtby, who after a shaky start has found his game again, especially since the trade deadline.  Since then he has gone 11-3-1 with a .921 SV% and a 2.2 GAA. Combine that with the 12^th ranked PP and the 24^th ranked PK…and now you have an intriguing series.

Though I have been riding high on the Bunch of Jerks bandwagon and love seeing Mrazek play well, I don’t think they’ll have enough to get through the Caps this time.  Though it won’t be easy at all, I have to put my money on Washington.  They just have been there over and over, and this is the first time in a decade that Carolina has made the playoffs.  This will be a great learning experience for this young team. The future is bright, but Washington in 6.

And with that we have a nice break down of all the first round of the Eastern Conference series.  And once again, my picks.  Boston in 6, Tampa in 5, Pittsburgh in 6, and Washington in 6.  No crazy upsets this round, things should go as expected, though it won’t be easy for anyone.  Am I right here or am I completely out of my mind with some of these? There is only one way to find out and that’s by watching how all the games play out.  But we’ll all know soon enough.  We’ll reconvene with all these teams in round two, until then keep an eye out for the other half of my break down where I examine the Western Conference.