Saturday, May 25, 2019

The Stanley Cup Final


Eastern Conference: Boston Bruins vs Western Conference: St. Louis Blues:

Finally, after nearly a month and a half of non-stop hockey, we’ve arrived at the final round, and this one is for all the marbles. We’ve seen nearly everything the game has to offer at this point.  We’ve seen highlight reel goals and saves, huge hits and fights, injuries and triumphant returns, sweeps and upsets, and even bad or missed calls that have decided the outcome of some games (or even series).  All that’s left is for the two teams remaining to battle it out, for all the glory.

Coming out of the Eastern Conference we have the Boston Bruins.  They’re a team who has been near the top of the league standings all year long and after two hard fought rounds, earned some time off with a sweep of the Carolina Hurricanes in the Conference Final. And though they won 4-straight to advance, to say they were dominant wouldn’t exactly tell the whole story.

Carolina came out and took it to them like they have everyone else in these playoffs by playing a fast and up-tempo game that is hard to match.  They also controlled most of the play (52.9 CF% and a 52.1 FF%), especially at home.  But Boston held strong, played solid defensively and capitalized when it mattered the most.  And the top line of Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak really woke up in this series and helped to lead Boston like they have all year long.

In the series against the Canes this trio of players combined for 14pts in only 4-games, and 8 of those points came on the Power Play as well.  The Power Play is where the Bruins really capitalized as well, scoring on 47% of their chances.  And while they scored 7-goals on the Power Play, they only allowed 1- PPG against in 14 opportunities, good for 93% success rate on the Penalty Kill.  To have a Penalty Kill that good, a team must really have some amazing goaltending, and the Bruins have just that.

Tuukka Rask, what is there to say other than that he has been outstanding in every way.  With the help of a great defense core in front of him and a strong commitment to defense by the team, he is solidifying Boston’s claim to the Cup.  In this past series alone Tuukka has a 1.25 GAA and a .956 SV% which is outstanding.  His overall numbers are 1.84 GAA and a .942 SV%, showing that he is playing better the farther the team advances.

But their opponent has turned their own season around by riding an unknown goalie towards glory themselves, that would be the St. Louis Blues.  Its been well documented how their season has gone.  From being dead last in the league at the New Year, to calling up goaltender Jordan Binnington and then going 30-10-5 from January 3rd till the end of the regular season, the Blues were riding high.

And they have continued to do so through these playoffs by 1st knocking out one of the biggest favorites, the Winnipeg Jets.  Then in the 2nd round they took control and smashed the Dallas Stars.  Which led them into a dominant conference final performance against the San Jose Sharks in the 3rd round. And every series, the team gets better and better, with key contributions coming from up and down the line up.  But all the while, its been Binnington holding it down in net.

Now while he hasn’t been playing at the level of Tuukka Rask, he is playing admirably.  Through the playoffs he has a 12-7 record with a 2.36 GAA and a .914 SV%.  These numbers are down a bit from his regular season where he had a .927 SV% and a 1.89 GAA.  But we know what he is capable of and if St. Louis is going to complete their Cinderella story, they’ll need him to play at his best every game.  Luckily, he’ll have plenty of help in front of him.

The Blues have D-Core my not be as well-known as Boston’s but damn if they’re not good!  Led by Captain Alex Pietrangelo they do a bit of everything and are very well balanced.  Guys like Pietrangelo, Parayko, and Edmundson are putting up the points, while Bortuzzo and Bouwmeester are keeping the opponents from getting to the front of the net.  And rookie Vince Dunn has brought a new level of speed and energy to the back end.   Most importantly though is they can all play a hard and physical game which they used to shut down all their opponents so far. 

Upfront they bring that same physicality mixed with determination and a lot of skill.  Against the Sharks all the big guns found their game and came to play.  Tarasenko led the way with 8-pts in 6-games.  Followed by Perron (7-pts), O’Reilly (5-pts), Schwartz (5-pts) and Bozak (4-pts).  They’re getting important contributions on the Power Play as well which had a 23.8 success rate against the Sharks. The Penalty Kill is having great success too, at 84.6%.

Looking at the team’s possession numbers over the last series, they don’t look so great.  The Blues had an average 46.2 CF% and a 48.2 FF%.  Not good at all but these were drug down by two very poor games were they under 40 and under 30 in the CF%, so I’d like to think of them as anomalies.  Looking at the 1st and 2nd round they’re at a 52.2 CF% and a 51.4 FF% and when taking the two poor games out against the Sharks they’re in the same ballpark with a 51.95 CF% and a 53.2 FF%. When they’re playing their game to the best of their abilities, they control the action.  But what most don’t see, is the games where they haven’t controlled the game or tempo, they still manage to steal the victory.

When looking at all these various factors it can make it hard to pick a winner here.  These are two teams that I had picked to make it at least to the conference finals, and here they are now in the Cup Final.  This seems to be a very evenly matched series when looking at the rosters, production, and styles of play. Both teams are even in goals scored at this point in the playoffs as well with 57-Goals, though Boston got there in 2-less games.  But the biggest difference is in goals against and unfortunately that is in part where I make my decision. While the St. Louis has allowed 48-GA in 19-games, Boston has only allowed 33-GA in 17-games.

As the saying goes, defense wins championships.  And in hockey a hot goaltender can be the ultimate trump-card.  Boston seems to have that in the form of Rask.  Not only that but Boston has had more than a week off allowing some of there injured players to rest and heal, none more important to their team than Zdeno Chara.  As much as I like what St. Louis has done this year, how they play, and some of the players individually, I’m almost forced to take Boston here.  But we have seen nearly all the teams that get rest prior to the next round get knocked out once they resume play.

This series will be tight and come down too many key contributors.  I have gotten away from giving series X-Factors, but for this series I think I have too.  For Boston it is going to come down to Marchand up front versus O’Reilly for the Blues.  I’d imagine O’Reilly will be out there shift for shift against Marchand and his line so it will fall on him to shut them down while not allowing Marchand to get into his head.  Defensive X-Factors will be Chara versus Pietrangelo.  Both men are the captains of their teams and will be expected to set the tone early in the series physically and offensively.  And of course, we have our goaltenders, Rask and Binnington. If I had to pick one for my team right now, it’d be Rask.

And there you have it, just about all the information I can give you leading up to an epic Stanley Cup Finals series.  You can be the judge of how this series should play out. I know most do not want to see Boston win this and I don’t blame them.  But what I know is this, it will be one of the most competitive Stanley Cup Final matchups we’ve seen in a long time.  It will be fast and hard hitting, with plenty of goals to go around.   It’ll be as entertaining as hockey gets and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.  And in the end, the greatest trophy in all of sports will be lifted once again, The Stanley Cup.


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