Sunday, January 27, 2019

The Trade Deadline Looms: Eastern Conference Edition

While thinking about how to attack this potentially insane trade deadline I came up with far too many scenarios to put into just one post.  So, with that in mind I’m going to try and focus on a few teams in the Eastern Conference, teams looking to add.  This is likely going to be extremely difficult as there is a lot of potential cross over from players moving between conferences, but I’m going to do my best here.

Pittsburgh Penguins:

The Penguins are a logical place to start as they have a history of making deadline moves.  At this point in the season they’re 4th place in the Metro and holding onto the final wild card spot in the east.  One big rumor I have heard is that they’ll be looking to move Derick Brassard out as he has not been a fit since being acquired at last years deadline.  But in moving him out, they’ll likely be looking for a player, particularly a center, of at least equal caliber.  And I think I have found such a player, unfortunately this requires jumping over to the Western Conference (hey, I said I’d try and keep it to one conference).  When looking through TSN’s Trade Bait list, one center really jumped out at me for this role with the Pens, that player is Brayden Schenn. 

Ranking of Scheen via TSN

Ranking of Brassard via TSN

Why this Schenn for Brassard swap?  For starters, both are having down years, Brassard with only 14pts and Schenn with 24pts so far this season.  Brassard is on an expiring contract, Schenn has one more season at $5.13M, only $.13M more than Pit is paying Brassard. But Schenn is also younger and brings a bit of everything with his game.  During his four full time seasons in Philly Schenn had averaged .625PPG, but also brought a lot of physicality and gritty.  And just last year playing as a 1st line center he showed he has some more offensive talent in his back pocket as he amassed his first 70pt season.  Putting a player like that in the line up as a 3rd line center behind Crosby and Malkin, you’re bound to end up with some mismatches.  The biggest problem is just wondering if all the Flyers orange is out of his system.

I would also expect the Pens to make a move for a depth defenseman.  Someone who is defensively reliable and can make a solid outlet pass at the very least.  They’ll be expecting Justin Shultz back into their line up just before the deadline which will be a fantastic boost but adding a depth player never hurts.  Maybe someone like Nick Jensen out of Detroit could be a low-cost addition as they make their push to the playoffs.

Carolina Hurricanes:

The Hurricanes are one of those teams that are truly in a battle for a wild card spot at this point and have made a recent move to help them in swapping out Rask for Niederreiter, something tells me they’re not done yet.  As of this season they are under new ownership and overall front office management so I would expect them to press hard to make a splash.  They also have plenty of chips to trade in the way of picks and prospects, not to mention salary cap space.

This is a young team that has a whole lot going for it.  They lead the league in shots for (SF/G) and against (SA/G) per game at 35.8 and 27.9 respectively.  But their PP and PK are not very good at all, with a PP at 16.8% and a PK at 79.9, both are in the bottom half of the league. So, they’ll be looking for someone who can help in both of those areas and after trading Rask away, perhaps someone who can take over the role of the number two center…I’ve found just the guy.

Ranking of Duchene out of the top-45 trade bait players via TSN

Matt Duchene, the number one player on TSN’s Trade Bait list, a 28-year-old center on an expiring contract and having a damn fine season on a dumpster fire of a team up in frigid Ottawa. In 41 games this season Duchene has 20G and 47Pts.  He only has 8Pts on the PP which tells you that he is getting it done at 5-on-5, and he has an incredible face off percentage this season winning 55% of his draws so far. And with Ottawa being a team on the rebuild they could reap major benefits of what a team like Carolina could give up for a player of Duchene’s caliber.

The price will most certainly include a 1st round pick, potentially a 2nd or 3rd as well, and you can plan on a prospect being included as well.  With the plethora of defensemen in Carolina’s system my money would be on Jake Bean or Adam Fox being on the move.  Expect Martin Necas to be in discussion as well, but if he were on the move then I can’t imagine another pick than the 1st rounder in play.

I did mention Carolina looking for help on the PK as well and since Duchene doesn’t really cover that area, I would expect a depth move there.  Someone like Luke Glendenning could be in play there as well.  He has been contributing offensively this year more so than most and is relied upon defensively and on the PK here in Detroit.  He is typically very good on faceoffs as well with a 56.5 winning percentage this season, which can be a clutch play late in a game when preserving a lead.  He shouldn’t cost more than a 2nd-3rd round pick as well.

Toronto Maple Leafs:

The Maple Leafs are one of the strongest contenders in the eastern conference with the offensive fire power that rivals any other team in the league.  They’re tied for 3rd in the league in goals for per game (GF/G) at 3.6 and the goals against (GA/G) at a very respectable 2.9, but that is mostly because they have possession of the puck usually more than their opponents.  But they’re still somehow being outshot on average with a 31.4 SF/G and a 32.6 SA/G.  That’s a number they’ll look to bring down as I would imagine they’ll be looking to add a defensively oriented defenseman.

The problem to the Leafs is their contract situation, they won’t be able to take on a player with money if there is term on his deal after this season, at least not much money. With that in mind I have three players who may fit the needs of the Toronto, and I’m going off the board with two of them. One player from the trade bait list is Jake Muzzin of the L.A. Kings. The other two players are Dylan DeMelo of Ottawa and my favorite of the three, Rako Gudas of the Flyers.

Ranking of Muzzin via TSN

Let’s start with Muzzin, he is a former Stanley Cup Champion with the Kings in 2014 and in 2012 he was with the team on their championship run although he didn’t play. In the three years since the 2014 season he has had two 40+ Pt seasons and is on pace for his third this year.  He has the championship pedigree they would be looking for, he also leads the Kings in hits and blocked shots so far this season. As far as his contract situation goes, he has one year left at $4 million.

Dylan DeMelo stat line
Going off the board I’ll start with Dylan DeMelo.  He is a 25-year-old, right shot (Babcock loves that already) middle pairing, defenseman with the struggling Sens.  His stats put him a little out of the limelight, but he isn’t an offensively minded player.   With 14Pts in 45 games, you’re not looking for him to put the puck in the net but keep it out of yours.  And with a Plus/Minus of +15 on a nearly last place team…he is surely doing something right.  He is also 3rd on the team in hits and 4th in blocked shots, he would be 3rd on the Leafs in both of those categories as well.  He is in a good situation with his contract as far as it relates to the Leafs with 1 more year at only $900K.

Rako Gudas stat line via TSN
And finally, we arrive at Rako Gudas, the often-controversial Flyers defenseman.  He is another guy who isn’t going to produce like crazy on the offensive side of things, though he does have a cannon of a shot, did I mention he is a righty as well?  But what he does best is play a hard, mean, physical game that rivals anyone else in the league.  He does it so well that he has been known to cross the line from time to time and has been suspended three times and have many other calls from the Dept. of Player Safety. Though it has been nearly one full year since he has had any run ins with the ‘law’ he still maintains his physical style of play as he is tied for 3rd in the league in hits with 148!  That would be almost double the leader on Toronto. And with all the youth and skill on the team, they could benefit greatly from having a player like this patrolling their blueline.  And of note, Gudas is only 28 with one more year on his deal at $3.35 million on his deal.

Of the three potentials here, I personally like Gudas the best and he may only cost them a 2nd or 3rd round pick.  But it will be interesting to see who they do choose to add at the deadline this year as they’re in a highly competitive race in the Atlantic Division and all the teams they’re competing with will be adding to their line ups as well. 

This is just a small taste of some of what could transpire come February 25th when we reach the NHL’s trade deadline.  All I know is every year something shocking happens and this season should be no exception.  Once again as well, I feel it is important to note that these are my thoughts and bold predictions if you will.  And I know there are plenty of other teams in the Eastern Conference, but I just can’t cover and try and predict what they’re all going to do.  With that, I’ll leave it to you to ponder what moves the other teams in the conference could make and I’ll be serving up some ideas for teams in the Western Conference next. 

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